Update : FAO Fiyat Uyari Gostergesi Yonteminin Tanitimi ve Turkiye’de Islenmemis Gida Urunlerine Uygulanmasi

[TR] 2007-2008 yillarinda yasanan dunya gida krizi gida guvenligi ve surdurulebilirligine iliskin onemli bir gundem olusturmus ve gida krizlerinin erken tespitine yonelik calismalara ivme kazandirmistir. Bu yondeki calismalar agirlikli olarak arz soklarinin meteorolojik ve fenolojik yontemler kullanilarak erken tahminini hedef almakla birlikte, piyasa fiyatini erken uyari acisindan oncu gosterge olarak kullanan yontemler de gelistirilmistir. Bu baglamda, Birlesmis Milletler Gida ve Tarim Orgutu (FAO) de “Kuresel Bilgi ve Erken Uyari Sistemi (GIEWS)” kapsaminda tarimsal urun fiyat degisimlerini temel alan bir “fiyat uyari gostergesi” yontemi gelistirmistir. Bu calismada oncelikle soz konusu yontem tanitilmis, calismanin devaminda ise FAO fiyat uyari gostergesi yontemi TUFE sepeti icinde yer alan farkli nitelikteki islenmemis gida urunlerine uygulanmistir. Bu cercevede, FAO fiyat uyari gostergesinin Turkiye’de reel fiyati uzun sureli inis ve uzun sureli cikislar gosteren nohut ve dana eti gibi islenmemis gida urunleri icin piyasadaki olasi arz acigina iliskin onemli sinyaller verebilecegi gorulmustur. [EN] World food crisis, which happened in 2007 and 2008, raised the public interest in the issues of food security and sustainability, and accelerated the efforts aimed at early determination of food crises. Although these efforts are mostly based on early prediction of supply shocks by using meteorological and phenological data, other methods employing market prices as an early warning indicator were developed as well. In this context, Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO) developed a price warning indicator method that grounds on agricultural product price changes as part of Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). The first part of this study presents a detailed description of aforementioned FAO method. Afterwards, FAO price warning indicator method was applied to a variety of unprocessed food products of the consumer price index basket in Turkey. FAO price warning indicator method is able to give important signals for the potential supply shortages of agricultural products such as chickpea and veal, real prices of which display persistent rises and falls.