Variety of economic judgment and monetary policy-making by committee
AbstractWith the increasing attention to how monetary policy is communicated has come a focus on the scope for diverse messages to arise from the committee making the decisions. While the existing literature sees the source of such diversity in relation to a 'correct' decision based on one 'true' model, we explore the implications of diversity as being instead the norm within a pluralist approach to knowledge. By considering judgment as the core of decision-making and uncertainty as conditioning judgment, we develop a theory of decision-making by committee under uncertainty. our case study is the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. We conclude with a hypothesis about the tendency to policy inaction in different circumstances, notably where there are confident but conflicting judgments within the committee, on the one hand, and where there is agreement that a high level of uncertainty clouds judgment, on the other. This contrasts with the conventional association of diversity of MPC opinion with uncertainty (both as cause and effect).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by SCEME in its series SCEME Working Papers: Advances in Economic Methodology with number 026/2009.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
uncertainty; judgement; ambiguity; central bank communication; monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
- B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-05-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-05-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-05-02 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-PKE-2009-05-02 (Post Keynesian Economics)
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