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Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038

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  • Abrar Arif

Abstract

This report is an update of an earlier report by the CSLS in 2018, projecting real GDP growth for Canada and the provinces for the 2017-2038 period (Sharpe and Iglesias, 2018). The projections of this report are based on two additional years of historical data: 2018 and 2019. Two perspectives are explored in the report. First, the historical perspective, comparing current projections to the 2000-2019 period. Economic growth is projected to be slower over the next 20 years, down from 1.98 per cent per year over 2000-2019 to 1.71 per cent per year for the 2019- 2038 period. Second, the earlier projections perspective, comparing current projections for the 2019-2038 period and the previous projections of the 2018 report for the 2017-2038 period. This report projects a growth rate of 1.71 per cent per year for 2019-2038, an increase of 0.15 percentage points over the earlier projection of 1.56 per cent for 2017-2038. An update in Statistics Canada’s population projections assumptions, mainly due to higher immigration assumptions, was the driving factor for the differences between the two projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Abrar Arif, 2022. "Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces, 2019-2038," CSLS Research Reports 2022-01, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:resrep:1925
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    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2022-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Don Drummond & Evan Capeluck, 2015. "Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038," CSLS Research Reports 2015-08, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
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    Keywords

    GDP; growth; projection; Canada;
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