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Transaction-Data Analysis of Marked Durations and Their Implications for Market Microstructure

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Author Info
Anthony Tay () (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)
Christopher Ting () (Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University)
Yiu Kuen Tse () (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)
Mitch Warachka () (Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University)

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Abstract

We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell). Applying the ACMD model to tick movements, we study the influence of trade frequency, direction and size on price dynamics, volatility and the permanent and transitory price impacts of trade. We also apply the ACMD model to analyze trade-direction data and estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN). We find that trade frequency has a critical role in price dynamics while the contribution of volume to price impacts, volatility, and the probability of informed trading is marginal.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09-2004.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:09-2004

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Related research
Keywords: Autoregressive Conditional Duration; Market Microstructure; Informed Trading;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, 1996. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-34, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    Other versions:
  5. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  6. Robert F. Engle & Asger Lunde, 2003. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 159-188.
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  7. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  10. Tina Hviid Rydberg & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Dynamics of Trade-by-Trade Price Movements: Decomposition and Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 2-25.
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  11. Engle, Robert F. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 187-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jegadeesh N. & Titman S., 1995. "Short-Horizon Return Reversals and the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 116-132, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anthony Tay & Christopher Ting, 2006. "Intraday stock prices, volume, and duration: a nonparametric conditional density analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 827-842, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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