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A Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Taipei Seismic Hazards: An Application of HAZ-Taiwan with its Pre-processor and Post-processor

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Abstract

This paper employs probabilistic risk analysis to estimate exceedance probability curves, average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss (PML) for seismic hazards. It utilizes and event-driven loss estimation model, HAZ-Taiwan, and develops its pre-processing and post-processing software modules. First, the pre-processingmodule establishes a set of hazard-consistent scenarios. Then, the HAZ-Taiwan modelextimates hazards, vulnerabilities and economic losses for each scenario. Finally, the aggregate and occurrence exceedance probability curves for losses and theirconfidence intervals are simulated using the Monte Carlo simulation in thepost-processing module. The methodology is then applied to analyze seismic risks in Taipei. It is found that the exceedance probability of an aggregate loss of NT$40.398 billion is 0.001. This amount of loss is approximately 2.78% of the total stock of buildings in Taipei. Its 5%-95% confidence intervals range from NT$37.41-43.12 billion. The average annual loss of buildings in Taipei is NT$1.06 billion r approximately 0.07% of the total stock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan in its series IEAS Working Paper : academic research with number 04-A009.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sin:wpaper:04-a009

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Keywords: probabilistic risk analysis; Hazard analysis; vulnerability analysis; exceedance probability curve; HAZ-Taiwan;

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