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Climate Change and Violent Conflict in Europe over the Last Millennium

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

  • Sebastian Wagner

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder periods. This relationship is weakening over time, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. We thus confirm Zhang et al. (2006, Climatic Change, 76, 459-477) that, at least in temperate climates, global warming would, if anything, lead to reduced violent conflict.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/climatewarwp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-154.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:154

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Keywords: history; violent conflict; Europe; climate change;

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Cited by:
  1. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.

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