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Climate Change and Violent Conflict in Europe over the Last Millennium

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Author Info
Richard S.J. Tol () (Economic and Social Research Institute)
Sebastian Wagner

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Abstract

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder periods. This relationship is weakening over time, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. We thus confirm Zhang et al. (2006, Climatic Change, 76, 459-477) that, at least in temperate climates, global warming would, if anything, lead to reduced violent conflict.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/climatewarwp.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-154.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:154

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Web page: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/
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Related research
Keywords: history; violent conflict; Europe; climate change;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

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