Re-examining the Structural and the Persistence Approach
AbstractThis paper uses an unobserved component model to examine the relative importance of the structural and the persistence approach to unemployment. We derive the NAIRU from a standard imperfect competition model. The price- and wage-setting schedules include a measure for unemployment persistence. Short-run dynamics are introduced through a demand equation which is linked to unemployment via Okunâ€™s Law. This multivariate model is then estimated for the US and the euro data using Bayesian techniques and the Kalman filter. The results show that although cyclical shocks are very persistent, most of the increase in European unemployment is driven by supply factors. The degree of persistence is somewhat lower in the US but demand shocks seem to be more important in explaining variation of unemployment
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 226.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Unemployment persistence; Kalman filter; Bayesian analysis.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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