Modeling And Estimation Of The Investment And Budget Policy In Western Siberia Regions

Purpose: Present study is aimed in interpretation of the results of investment accounts and budget policy on the basis of regional economy functioning model. Next purposes were to show their analytical opportunities by researching the problem of investment differentiation, levels of regional social and economic development and to search for budget policy opportunities by solving these problems. Subject: The West-Siberian rayon was selected because of the following reasons: the regions of Russian Federation located in the West-Siberian rayon are very different in terms of economic and geographical distribution and even in variety in social and economic development; initial information on the West-Siberian rayon was more complete an appropriate for interpretation, comparing with other rayons; the highly specific gravity of this rayon in Russian economy determines its significant influence on the social and economic development of the country.Method: In regional economy functioning (REF) model one can extract five major aspects to be applied for regional economy: companies, which include all industrial goods and services, companies, offering public service, regional and federal governments, and the population. This is the recurrent type model (not econometric) containing of 75 exogenous and 350 calculated parameters. The regional social and economic development is characterized by 7 indexes called general indicators. Forecast phase covers period 1996 - 2001. Microsoft Exell-97 program is used for carrying out this REF model. The mathematical model for each actor of regional economy uses a balance principle and includes the following blocks: financial balance of the total incomes, all expenditure positions, profit of good production and social services, balance of usage of the population incomes, balance of shaping taxes and allocations on expenditures both the federal and regional budgets, also extra-budget funds. The regional social and economic processes are characterized by seven general indicators of model: gross regional product per capita, regional unemployment, regional income per capita, own regional capital investment, incomes of the regional and federal budget. For the own regional investment we concern the capital investment of firms, and also capital investment of regional government in good production and social services. Exterior investments are considers as the federal government investment spent in this region, foreign investment and investment of other regions. Two variants were formulated for accounting (...)Results: According the first variant the saving of existing investment and budget policy for the West Siberian rayon means changing the stability of the basic parameters of social and economic development to the growth stage, which is defined substantially by growth of pure taxes and surplus value for companies in social service, and in most - by economic growth in the Tyumen region. By means of a basic source of economic growth in theWest Siberian rayon the exterior investments are expected. The regional investment differentiation will not be overcome during that period, but will be increase, leading to reducing further density of the investment process in the Tyumen region. There is a reverse dependence: the more gross regional product and industrial production exist, the lower own regional investment comes.In the most depressing regions reallocation of the budget expenditures for the investment budget and flowing expenditures for the goods production on the second variant allow little boost of the gross regional product. At the same time, the cause of the budget limitation makes insignificant the possibility of such maneuver. It is also possible to summarize basic moment of regional budget policy: the limitations on regional loans for covering the deficiency in the regional budgets do not reduce any significant modifications of the social and economic development indicators. In fact, in the intermediate term perspective the exterior budget loans are not necessary mean both really budget deficiency and need for its financing but are defined only by present loaning practice. The transfer reallocation for the regions with a minimum budget level and the lowest indexes of social and economic development is not reduced in a noticeable modification of macroeconomic indexes. At real, sizes of transfers and present character of usage of those diminish the possibility of cutting mechanism to reduce the differences in regional social and economic development. Simultaneously, the transfer reallocation reduces falling of the incomes in all regions. Such a reallocation is rather insignificant and cannot provide enough positive effect. Development for social services, which requires additional budget recourses, is allowed. As a result of transfer reallocation there is a need for additional inflow of resources from the outside. The modified structure of the regional budgets in a cutting of flowing expenditures of investment budget is an effective measure to reduce the social and economic development differentiation. In the positive action came from the first variant, this tendency is magnified, and in case of extremity of examined period there is a cutting the gross regional product, so the collapse has a smaller value. At the same time, the gross regional product for the West-Siberian rayon is not varied.