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Words Matter: A Textual Analysis of SBP’s Monetary Policy Reviews

Author

Listed:
  • Asif Mahmood

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Zuhair Munawar

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

In this paper we perform a textual analysis of monetary policy statements issued during the past ten years by State Bank of Pakistan and compare them with policy reviews of seven selected central banks from regional, emerging and advanced economies. Broadly, we divided our analysis into three parts. In the first part, we attempt to estimate the contribution of macroeconomic contents in the monetary policy analysis of selected central banks. The second part deals with the decomposition of macroeconomic contents in driving the policy decisions. In the last section, we attempt to measure the forward-looking content in the monetary policy reviews and also their predictive power. Key findings suggest that, across the sample, trends in inflation and developments in external sector play an important role in driving the monetary policy stance. Also, it is found that the inflation targeting central banks have more forward-looking content in their policy reviews than non-inflation targeters. On the basis of empirical estimation, the former central banks are also found to be more proactive in adjusting the policy stance to given macroeconomic conditions and their outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Asif Mahmood & Muhammad Zuhair Munawar, 2016. "Words Matter: A Textual Analysis of SBP’s Monetary Policy Reviews," SBP Working Paper Series 78, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:78
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    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2016/wp78.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; central bank; communication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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