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Politici fiscale prociclice si anticiclice, in tarile membre UE non-euro

Author

Listed:
  • Iancu, Aurel

    (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice "Costin C. Kiritescu" al Academiei Române)

  • Olteanu, Dan Constantin

    (Institutul National de Cercetari Economice "Costin C. Kiritescu" al Academiei Române)

Abstract

In this study we aim to determine the nature of the discretionary fiscal policy practiced by non-euro EU member states (of which Romania is a part) and to deduce some inclinations or preferences of some of these countries for one of the two types of fiscal policies - procyclical or anticyclical. For this purpose, we used time series for the period 1995-2020, of the cyclically-adjusted primary balance, the output gap (actual GDP - potential GDP), as well as additional indicators - public debt, fiscal rules index and election years. From the signs and magnitude of the correlation and regression coefficients, it results that almost all countries have learned the necessary lessons from the economic / financial crisis, in order to move from a pro-cyclical policy, during 1995-2008, to an anti-cyclical policy, in 2009-2020. This is confirmed both by the coefficients calculated for each country and by the average coefficients calculated for the whole group of countries, over the two periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan Constantin, 2021. "Politici fiscale prociclice si anticiclice, in tarile membre UE non-euro," Studii Economice 211130, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ror:seince:211130
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    Cited by:

    1. Aurel IANCU & Dan Constantin OLTEANU, 2022. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policies in Non-Euro EU Member Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 188-205, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    discretionary fiscal policy; fiscal reaction function; procyclicality; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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