Machine Learning Methods For Assessing Heterogeneous Impact Effects And Their Application To The Assessment And Prediction Of Changes In The Productivity Of Individual Firms As A Result Of Their Entry Into Export Markets[Методы Машинного Обучения Для Оценки Неоднородных Эффектов Воздействия И Их Применение К Оценке И Прогнозированию Изменений Производительности Отдельных Фирм В Результате Их Выхода На Экспортные Рынки]

It is widely known that exporters are, on average, larger firms than exporters. In other words, a larger firm is more likely to be an exporter. What is the reason for this? A natural explanation can be offered from the perspective of the latest theory of international trade, laid down in the classic article [1]. Within the framework of this theory, the main factor determining the entry of companies into export markets is the fixed costs associated with it. Accordingly, those companies that can capture a large share of the foreign market after entering it, if other things being equal, they are more likely to decide that the additional profit received due to this compensates for one-time fixed costs. And the ability to capture market share within the relevant models is directly related to the marginal costs, efficiency and productivity of the firm. At the same time we can expect that more productive firms will develop faster. Thus, we can explain the relationship between the size of the company and its export status, but we also get a more important relationship – between the export status the company and its efficiency, and this pattern is observed in practice. Indeed, if we accept the considerations described above, we expect that more productive firms will become exporters more often. At the same time, there is another point of view – that the company's entry into export markets can lead to an increase in its efficiency and productivity through the mechanism of "learning through export". After entering the export markets, the company is forced to make more investments in new technologies, new business practices. In addition, the presence of external links can significantly facilitate borrowing and the exchange of experience and technology. This effect may be of significant practical interest, since an increase in the productivity of enterprises can serve as an important source of economic growth and ensure the development of Russia. Accordingly, in this paper, we aim to divide the dependence between productivity and export status into these two effects in order to identify potential opportunities to stimulate the development of Russian enterprises by facilitating they have access to foreign markets.