Excess mortality in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: regional analysis[Региональные Оценки Избыточной Смертности В России Вследствие Пандемии Covid-19 В 2020 Г]

One of the most important tasks for assessing the damage from a pandemic is the assessment of human losses resulting from the disease. As a rule, it is rather difficult to estimate the direct number of deaths from COVID-19, due to both the methodological difficulties in assessing the causes of death and the choice of a reference point for assessing excess mortality. The existing approaches, such as comparing with the previous year or the average mortality figure over the past few years are associated with numerous problems. To get a more objective assessment of the number of deaths in the absence of a pandemic, it is necessary to use the projected number of deaths considering the age structure of the population. To assess excess mortality, this paper uses the method of constructing a demographic forecast. The baseline scenario against which excess mortality is calculated is estimated using a multi-regional demographic projection. In this paper we are using statistical data from Rosstat and the results of demographic modeling to analyze the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We compare the mortality data for 2020 with the projected number of deaths for 2020. The paper provides estimates of excess mortality in the regional context. Estimates are given both for the Russian Federation as a whole and for individual Russian regions. Estimates of excess mortality are also provided for separately for men and women and older age groups.