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Length of a Healthy Life of the Population of Russia. Modeling, Regional Assessments and Forecasting
[Продолжительность Здоровой Жизни Населения России. Моделирование, Региональные Оценки И Прогнозирование]

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  • Scherbov, Sergei (Щербов, Сергей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the expected duration of healthy life for the regions of Russia. For this, the Sanderson-Shcherbov model is estimated on the microdata of the World Health Organization collected in the SAGE survey for countries with an average life expectancy. Using the obtained model estimates and mortality tables (for Russia in general and for individual Russian regions), estimates are made for the age-related prevalence of health status. Using the Sullivan model and estimated age-related prevalence rates, extended mortality tables are constructed and estimates of the expected duration of healthy life are made. This approach is used to obtain Russian regional estimates for 2015 and Russian forecast trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Scherbov, Sergei (Щербов, Сергей) & Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей), 2018. "Length of a Healthy Life of the Population of Russia. Modeling, Regional Assessments and Forecasting [Продолжительность Здоровой Жизни Населения России. Моделирование, Региональные Оценки И Прогноз," Working Papers 031805, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031805
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