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Modelando el Gas Entregado en Argentina: ¿Cuál es el Mejor Predictor?

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  • Canay, Iván

    (Universidad Argntina de la Empresa)

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    Abstract

    En el presente trabajo se utilizan tres modelos alternativos para pronosticar las series de gas entregado a los usuarios residenciales y al total de usuarios en Argentina. Los resultados muestran que los modelos de series de tiempo son más adecuados para este fin que los modelos clásicos, no sólo por no necesitar predecir los valores de las variables exógenas, sino porque las evaluaciones del pronóstico los favorecen. Pese a que la mayoría de los modelos presenta persistentemente una subestimación en el período invernal, los errores para el volumen entregado anualmente no superan el 1%.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Economía, Universidad Argentina de la Empresa in its series UADE Textos de Discusión with number 40_2002.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 01 May 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ris:uadetd:2002_040

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    Related research

    Keywords: series de gas entregado; Modelo de gas entregado;

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