Modelagem do Uso da Terra e Mensuração dos Efeitos de Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil

The paper discusses the development of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) with detailed specification for land use. This specification has been incorporated into the model to consider 13 distinct uses of the land use. These land uses were classified in order to maintain correspondence with the classification of the IBGE, also allowing them to be associated with products of the economic model. The incorporation of the land use in the model was made on both the demand, in this case the primary factor land is a measure of production costs, and the land supply, which is measured in physical terms and serves as restriction to the conversion process of land between the possible uses. To analyze the economic effects of climate change, we used a methodology of integration between the CGE model and an econometric model. The results of this model, which captured how land allocation responds to changes in temperature and precipitation, were used as elasticities in the CGE model to offset the demand curve for land among the different uses and regions. The simulations were based on information from a benchmark and climate projections. In order to produce the results, were supposed variations in temperature and precipitation between the periods 1975-2005 and 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99 of IPCC scenarios A2 and B2. The results indicated a negative change in real GDP between -0.0051% and -0.0198% in the A2 scenario and between -0.0054% and -0.0137% in the scenario B2.