팬데믹과 전쟁 이후 국제경제질서 변화와 대응(Changes in the international economic order in the post-pandemic and war era and challenges for Korea)

팬데믹과 전쟁 후 세계질서변화의 양상과 변화의 동인을 규명하고 새로운 국제경제질서를 전망한다. 포스트 팬데믹/전쟁 세계는 미국이 주도하는 선진국, 중국이 주도하는 유라시아, 글로벌 사우스로 3분되는 가운데 미중간의 전략경쟁으로 포장되는 신냉전은 쉽게 종식되지 않을 것으로 기대된다. 냉전시대와 달리 국가간 상호의존성이 높고 세계질서의 전환에 따른 지정학적, 지경학적 위험이 고조되는 상황하에서 경제안보의 중요성이 강조된다. 경제안보란 한 나라의 지속가능한 번영을 위한 지정학적, 지경학적 또는 기후변화와 같은 위험요인을 식별하고 이를 제어하는 능력이다. 전략경쟁의 신냉전 시대에 경제안보를 위한 우리나라 대외경제정책 방향을 제시한다. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War marked the end of the post-Cold War era and the beginning of a new Cold War era. From the global economic perspective, it was an event in which cracks occurred in the integration of the world economy, which was completed with China's accession to the WTO in 2001, and de-globalization has begun. However, these changes did not happen suddenly, and many factors have contributed to this turmoil. Among them, the most fundamental cause can be attributed to the United States’ declining status as a hegemon, which continued to lead the world order since World War II. The declining status as a hegemon is not simply due to the declining trend of the US share of world GDP. Compared to the advanced countries, including the United States, the economies of emerging countries have made a rather explosive growth in the recent decades. Above all, China has achieved strong economic growth and military power to the extent that the G2 has been crowned. However, the status of the dollar as a reserve currency is still dominant. The dollar occupies an overwhelming share in world foreign exchange transactions, and as a global safe asset and settlement currency for international trade and commodity transactions, it is incomparable to any other currencies. The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is having a huge ripple effect on the world economy by generating a global financial cycle. The declining power of the United States’ status as a hegemon should be found within the failure of domestic politics, which has caused much societal conflict and polarization such that no consensus can be reached on everything from masks to abortions. The failure of domestic politics is largely responsible for the vast societal inequality. Loss of jobs caused by China trade shock, automation (from digital technology development) and labor outsourcing (from GVC enabled) has contributed significantly to inequality. The failure of domestic politics also occurred in other center countries of the global world, such as Britain and France.(the rest omitted)