김정은 시대 북한의 대외관계 10년: 평가와 전망(10 Years of North Korea’s External Relations in the Kim Jong-un Era: Evaluation and Prospects)

본 연구는 김정은 위원장 집권 10년을 정권 승계기(2011년 12월~2012년), 집권 1기(2013~17년), 집권 2기(2018~21년)로 구분하여 각 집권 시기별로 북한이 추진하였던 대외정책의 특징을 규명하고, 이를 바탕으로 북한경제의 변화 방향을 전망하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 북한 대외 환경 변화와 북한의 정책적인 대응, 대외무역, 양자관계(중국, 러시아, 미국, 일본), 다자관계(UN 기구, 다자협의체)를 검토하였다. 연구결과 ① 김정은 위원장은 북한식 방식(생산수단의 사회적 소유, 국영기업 집단경영)으로 경제성장의 기반을 만드는 체제 내 개혁을 시도하였으나(2013~17), ② 핵무기 개발을 매개로 대외여건이 악화(2016~현재)되고, ③ 예상치 못했던 하노이 회담 결렬(2019.2)과 코로나19 확산(2020.1)으로 대외협력을 중단(2020~22)하면서, ④ 매우 낮은 성과만을 거둔 채 심각한 경제난에 직면한 것으로 평가할 수 있다. ①과 ②는 집권 1기에 나타난 특징이고, ③과 ④는 집권 2기에 나타난 특징으로 요약할 수 있다. The purpose of this research is to investigate the characteristics of North Korea’s foreign policy that it pursued by dividing Chairman Kim Jeong-un’s reign into three segments, Ascension to Power (2011 Dec-2012), First Regime (2013-2017) and Second Regime (2018-2021), and based on these findings, predict the direction of North Korea’s changing economy. For this, we reviewed the changes in North Korea’s surrounding foreign landscape its policy responses, foreign trade, bilateral relations (China, Russia, the United States, Japan) and multilateral relations (UN Agencies, Multilateral Councils). In chapter two, we introduced the changes that North Korea faced during the ten years of Chairman Kim Jeong-un’s regime with thesurrounding foreign landscape and its domestic policy responses. During the First Regime, we reviewed (1) the May 24th Measures and the strained inter-Korean relations causing North Korea’s economy to be increasingly dependent on China (2) Deterioration of North Korea-China relations after Jang Song-thaek's execution, (3) China’s tightening of anthracite (hard coal) environmental regulations, (4) UN Security Council’s tougher sanctions on North Korea, (5) implementation of economic reforms such as North Korean-style economic management for domestic economicpolicy, (6) designation of Special Economic Zone to stimulate foreign trade and foreign investment, (7) real estate development to build high-rise apartments and amusement facilities, (8) declaration of completing the simultaneous economic and nuclear development after North Korea’s nuclear test.During the Second Regime, we discussed the changes in both domestic and foreign landscape, in addition to North Korea’s policies, (9) UN Security Council’s fully-fledged implementation of sanctions on North Korea, (10) support from the international community for the Korean peninsula to show mood of conciliation, (11) The Hanoi Summit ending in failure (12) borders closed due to COVID-19, for domestic policy,(the rest omitted)