중앙아 주요국의 경제발전 전략과 경협 확대방안 (Economic Development Strategy of Major Central Asian Countries and Its Policy Implications for Korea)

Korean Abstract: 이 연구는 중앙아시아 주요국 경제발전전략의 기본 방향과 핵심 특성을 분석하고 경제협력 확대방안을 제시하려는 목적으로 수행되었다. 세계경제의 불확실성이 한층 증대되는 상황 속에서 중앙아시아 주요국 정부의 최대 관심사는 에너지 및 광물자원 의존도 축소, 산업다각화와 경제현대화를 통한 미래지향적이고 지속가능한 경제성장에 있었다. 따라서 한국은 중앙아 주요국의 신경제발전정책에 부합하는 상생 경제협력 방안 마련에 나서야 할 것이다. 본고에서는 고위급 회감의 정례화, 한ㆍ중앙아 경제협력위원회 구성, 한ㆍ중앙아 산업협력 펀드 조성, 산업다각화에 필요한 전문인력 양성 지원 등을 경제 협력 확대방안으로 제안했다. English Abstract: Uncertainties in the global economic environment are increasing due to prolonged low oil prices, China’s low economic growth, the possibilities of strengthened protectionist trade policies after the U.S. presidential election, and the emergence of neo-isolationism due to Brexit. In this situation, the Central Asian governments are developing and pursuing individual economic strategies which reflect their own socio-economic characteristics and core policy goals. Kazakhstan is shifting its policy direction from maximizing exports of raw materials to qualitative economic development. The country has pursued an open foreign policy and trade liberalization to overcome its geographical limitations as a small landlocked country. The open economy originally focused on exporting energy resources and attracting foreign capital, but with some control by the government in energy resources management. However, as the structural changes in the external economic environment occurred after the global financial crisis in 2008, the government started to focus on improving the structure of the economy, which remained dependent on energy resources. The key tasks for Kazakhstan were to upgrade its competitiveness, improve the investment climate, build infrastructure, diversify its industries through technological innovation, expand the role of private sectors, improve the efficiency of national asset management and develop human resources. Accordingly, the government adopted the State Program of Industrial-Innovative Development for 2015-2019 and announced the Nurly Zhol plan for promoting infrastructure development in 2014, followed by the "100 Concrete Steps to Implement Five Institutional Reforms" in 2015. This was a strategic attempt to build a foundation for sustainable economic growth by responding to changes in the external economic sector, through securing new growth engines in the economic sector, promoting industrial diversification and implementing structural reform. Uzbekistan has been pursuing an import substitution policy while maintaining a closed economy since independence. Uzbekistan's government-led closed-economy essentially followed policy goals which prioritized the protection of its domestic market and economic stability from external volatility. Thereby, the country concentrated its efforts in developing domestic industries among the five Central Asian countries. Thanks to this, the country has been able to accomplish considerable achievements in the manufacturing sector, but still has many limitations in cultivating its export competitiveness, as its main export items are weighted towards raw materials (cotton, gold, gas, etc.) and its manufacturing sector is mostly composed of labor-intensive industries. Recently, the Uzbek government is putting the highest emphasis on enhancing competitiveness and efficiency in import substitution while promoting export-oriented industrialization. Through these efforts it aims to pursue stable economic growth based on strategic cultivation of the export industry and to drive a shift from labor-intensive industries to technology-intensive business. The government set key initiatives in reducing excessive governmental involvement in the economic sector, expanding the role of the private sector, deregulating trade activities and exchange rates, etc. In this context, the government formulated a comprehensive global financial crisis recovery plan in 2009, and such initiatives as the "Priorities for Economic Policy" and the "Short-term and Long-term Action Plan of the Uzbekistan Cabinet" were presented in 2015. At present, the government is preparing long-term programs for economic development up to 2030, which are expected to include more details on improving the nation's industrial structure, such as the development of raw materials processing and high value-added industries.