동남아 해외송금의 개발효과 분석 (Migrant Remittances and Development in Southeast Asia)

Korean Abstract: 이 연구보고서는 동남아를 중심으로 해외송금의 현황과 특성, 그리고 그 개발효과를 분석하였다. 개발도상국으로 유입되는 해외송금은 그 규모가 크고 꾸준히 늘고 있다는 점, 다른 대외자금 유입액보다 변동성이 낮다는 점, 그리고 송금수취가구의 빈곤수준을 유효하게 감소시킨다는 점에서 새로운 개발재원으로 국제적 관심을 받고 있다. 아시아의 주요 이주수용국으로 부상한 한국은 이제 국제이주의 확대와 함께 급증하고 있는 해외송금의 개발효과에 주목해야 하며, 이에 대한 이해를 바탕으로 포스트 2015 개발체제 도래를 준비할 필요가 있다. 그러나 이러한 중요성에 비해 해외송금의 개발효과에 대해서는 그동안 국내에서 많은 연구가 수행되지 않아 이해 제고 차원에서 연구의 필요성이 제기되어 왔다. 본 연구는 해외송금의 개발효과를 빈곤감소뿐만 아니라 불평등감소, 경제성장, 금융발전, 투자를 포함하여 다소 광범위하게 정의하는데, 각 분야에 대한 기존 연구결과를 살펴보면 해외송금에는 긍정적 개발효과와 부정적 개발효과가 분야별로 다르게 나타나고 있다. 직접적 개발효과라고 할 수 있는 빈곤감소에 있어 해외송금의 효과는 일반적으로 인정되고 있고 교육과 보건지출 증가, 거시경제적 안정성에 대한 기여 또한 긍정적인 것으로 평가받고 있다. 다만 송금이 오히려 수취국의 불평등을 악화시킨다는 견해가 있으며, 송금이 경제성장을 촉진하는가에 대해서는 학계에서 합의가 이루어지지 않고 있다. 또한 송금에 대한 의존성과 대규모 대외자금 유입에 따른 네덜란드병 가능성 또한 제기되고 있는 것이 사실이다. 이러한 기존의 연구결과를 바탕으로 이 보고서는 먼저 동남아의 송금현황을 기술한 후, 개발의 각 분야에 있어 동남아가 다른 개발도상지역과 다른 특성을 갖는지 분석하고자 하였다. English Abstract: This report analyzes the trends and characteristics, and the impact of migrant remittances to Southeast Asian development. Remittances, money transfers sent by international migrants to their kin at home, are increasingly recognized as a new source of development finance by the international community. Remittances to developing countries are large in volume, increasing steadily, and less volatile than other types of external financial inflows. Transferred directly to the households in need, remittances are widely credited for their contribution to poverty reduction in developing countries. This is why remittances have become a focus of great attention for the Post-2015 Development Agenda. In conducting the analysis, this report focuses on Southeast Asia, an important remittance-recipient region and a major economic partner for Korea. Remittances to Southeast Asia show patterns similar to those of other developing regions. Remittances are a major source of external financial flows to the region, and they have been rising steadily over the past decades. And remittance inflows have been stable. Southeast Asia may not be on par with other regions including South Asia or Latin America in terms of the size of remittances, per capita remittances, or remittances as a share of GDP, but it ranks high in terms of the share of remittances in overall external financial flows and volatility of remittances in Southeast Asia are relatively low among the regions. Among Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines accounts for the most of the remittances flowing into the region although its share has been on a gradual decline. Other countries in the region, especially populous countries of Indonesia and Vietnam, are receiving increasing volumes of remittances, as their migration outflows are on a steady rise. The level of remittances from smaller, more underdeveloped countries of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar is also rising fast. It should be noted that remittances per capita exceed Official Development Assistance per capita in most Southeast Asian countries except Cambodia and Laos, which are aid-intensive countries. This suggests that remittances may have development potential that could complement foreign aid. This report also performs statistical analysis using cross-country panel data with an aim to investigate whether development impact of remittances differ between Southeast Asia and other developing regions. The empirical results indicate that Southeast Asia does not differ from the others with respect to impact of remittance outcomes on poverty reduction and investment. However, remittances does appear to raise inequality in Southeast Asia to a greater extent, which indicates remittances may be concentrated into higher income groups than other regions. The relationship between remittances and growth is stronger in Southeast Asia. Finally, although appearing to strengthen financial development outside Southeast Asia, remittances have a negative impact on financial development in the region. This suggests that the receiving countries in Southeast Asia need to improve institutions to enable greater contribution of remittances to domestic financial development. The government of Korea should continue to make an effort to reduce transaction costs of remittances and consider utilizing its foreign aid tools to enhance the development impact of remittances. It should also consider institutionalizing remittance sender surveys in the country to develop an effective research infrastructure for better understanding remittance outflows from Korea and their development impact in the receiving countries.