The Belief in the "Hot Hand" in the NFL: Evidence from Betting Volume Data
AbstractEvidence of bettors’ belief in the “Hot Hand” -- bettors believing teams on winning streaks will continue winning -- exists in the NBA but not the NFL. Previous research assumed that book makers set point spreads to balance betting on games. Recent research shows imbalanced betting in most markets, suggesting the point spreads may not reflect behavioral biases like the “hot hand.” We find a significant increase in bets on teams on winning streaks, suggesting that belief in the “hot hand” in the NFL exists, although simple strategies of betting against teams on a winning streak does not lead to excess returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Alberta, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-16.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
hot hand; sports betting; behavioral bias;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brenda Carrier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.