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Myanmar’s Trade and its Potential

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrarini, Benno

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The paper tabulates Myanmar’s merchandise trade as reported by its partner countries, thereby circumventing the data constraints stemming from Myanmar’s patchy trade records. It then estimates Myanmar’s export potential, based on the bilateral export patterns observed for six other countries in Southeast Asia. Against that benchmark and controlling for outliers, Myanmar is found to be trading at about 15% its potential. The bulk of this gap is explained by very low trade with the industrialized countries. Through reintegration with the world economy accompanied by deep economic reforms domestically, Myanmar would be expected to be closing this gap rather swiftly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrarini, Benno, 2013. "Myanmar’s Trade and its Potential," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 325, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0325
    Note: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2013/ewp-325.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Nyo, Myat Khet., 2015. "ASEAN Community 2015 managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity in Myanmar," ILO Working Papers 994872743402676, International Labour Organization.
    2. repec:ilo:ilowps:487274 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myanmar; gravity model; export potential;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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