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Predicting Housing Prices with Google Searches in Finland

Author

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  • Widgrén, Joona

Abstract

This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition, search queries improve the forecast of near future house prices. Predicting the present and near future house prices is relevant information to many agents, such as realtors and political decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Widgrén, Joona, 2016. "Predicting Housing Prices with Google Searches in Finland," ETLA Reports 63, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:rif:report:63
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    File URL: http://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Raportit-Reports-63.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Google Trends; Internet; Nowcasting; Forecasting; Housing market; Time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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