Technological Growth, Asset Pricing, and Consumption Risk over Long Horizons
AbstractIn this paper we develop a theoretical model in order to understand comovements between asset returns and consumption over longer horizons. We develop an intertemporal general equilibrium model featuring two types of shocks: small, frequent and disembodied shocks to productivity and large technological innovations, which are embodied into new vintages of the capital stock. The latter type of shocks affect the economy with significant lags, since firms need to make irreversible investments in the new types of capital and there is an option value to waiting. The model produces endogenous cycles, countercyclical variation in risk premia, and only a very modest degree of predictability in consumption and dividend growth as observed in the data. In the model, the conventional consumption CAPM holds conditionally. Yet, by conditioning down we show that its resulting unconditional version takes a form that resembles closely the version of the CAPM used in the literature on eventual or long run risk, and most closely Juliard and Parker (2005). We then use the model as a laboratory to show that in our simulated data the unconditional consumption CAPM performs badly, while its long-horizon version performs significantly better.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 93.
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
More information through EDIRC
Continuous Time Asset Pricing; Long Horizons; Technology; Growth Options; Consumption CAPM;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Mariano Croce & Kai Li & Hengjie Ai, 2010.
"Toward a Quantitative General Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Intangible Capital,"
2010 Meeting Papers
663, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hengjie Ai & Mariano Massimiliano Croce & Kai Li, 2013. "Toward a Quantitative General Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Intangible Capital," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 491-530.
- Hanno Lustig, . "Exploring the Link between Housing and the Value Premium (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 389, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Hengjie Ai & Dana Kiku, 2008. "A Model of Cross-Section of Equity Returns and Firm Dynamics," 2008 Meeting Papers 1030, Society for Economic Dynamics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.