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Private debt is the problem: Why the economic recovery of Cyprus remains an elusive and distant dream

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  • Savvakis C. Savvides

    (Independent Consultant)

Abstract

Cyprus suffers from a developing acute case of Balance Sheet Recession. This means that because of the excessive and quite unprecedented levels of private debt (3 to 4 times the size of the country’s GDP) weighing on households and corporations, it is practically impossible for the country to overcome the recessionary effects of the austerity conditions that were imposed since the bail-in in 2013 and which still constitute the core of the Government policy. The article concludes that therefore the government should stand ready to have in place the institutions and provide for such fiscal measures which will mitigate and cushion the deflationary effects of the coming, but very foreseeable, recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Savvakis C. Savvides, 2017. "Private debt is the problem: Why the economic recovery of Cyprus remains an elusive and distant dream," Development Discussion Papers 2017-17, JDI Executive Programs.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:dpaper:3144
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    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

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