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On Weak and Strong Population Momentum

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Espenshade

    (Princeton University)

  • Analia S. Olgiati

    (Princeton University)

  • Simon A. Levin

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

This paper decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts called weak momentum and strong momentum. Weak momentum depends on deviations between a population's observed age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Strong momentum is a function of deviations between a population's implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the product of weak and strong momentum is a very good approximation. The factorization is exact, however, if the observed age distribution is stable or if initial fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating weak, strong, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the paper brings together disparate strands of the population momentum literature and shows how the various kinds of momentum fit together into a single unifying framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Espenshade & Analia S. Olgiati & Simon A. Levin, 2009. "On Weak and Strong Population Momentum," Working Papers 1167, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Office of Population Research..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:opopre:opr0901.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population; momentum; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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