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Estimating the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Economy Using Nightlights Data

Author

Listed:
  • Till Raphael Sanger

    (Princeton University)

  • Ethan B. Kapstein

    (Princeton University)

  • Ronnie Sircar

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 led to the withdrawal of much of the West’s massive financial support to that country. The consequences are widespread for the government and its people, and news reports suggest that the economy is in "collapse." In this article, we go beyond qualitative and survey-based measures of the Afghan economy by using nightlights as a proxy measure for changes in GDP. Utilizing a synthetic control based on provinces of other countries in the region, we find that the Taliban takeover caused a shift from a positive growth trajectory towards a deep recession. Specifically, we estimate that Afghanistan’s GDP has likely fallen by about 15 percent since mid-2021, a shock comparable to the annual economic downturn of the United States during the peak of the Great Depression.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Raphael Sanger & Ethan B. Kapstein & Ronnie Sircar, 2022. "Estimating the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Economy Using Nightlights Data," Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers 34, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:esocpu:34
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    File URL: https://esoc.princeton.edu/WP34
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Afghanistan;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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