IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/202238.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting More than Three Centuries of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom: The Role of Climate Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Hardik A. Marfatia

    (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, BBH 344G, 5500 N. St. Louis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60625, USA)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on forecasting economic growth of the United Kingdom (UK) based on information content of climate-related risks, proxied by growth of temperature and its volatility, over and above, macroeconomic, financial market, and policy-based uncertainties. Using over three centuries of data, 1701 to 2020, we undertake a dynamic model averaging/selection (DMA/DMS) approach to forecast at one-, five-, and ten-year-ahead horizons. We find that climate risks provide superior forecasts for short- and long-term economic growth, over and above those obtained by other dimensions of uncertainty, in particular during the 20th and 21st centuries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Goodness C. Aye & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Forecasting More than Three Centuries of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202238, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Climate Risks; Uncertainties; Time-Varying Models; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.