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A numerical exercise on climate change and family planning: World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100 if women of age 15-29 wait and have their first child at age 30+

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  • Colignatus, Thomas

Abstract

Family planning could focus on delaying the having of children, instead of (just) reducing the number of children per woman. 66% of all children are born in the mothers’ age group of 15-29. A delay of births to the age of 30+ would cause a reduction of the world population by about 0.8 billion in a direct effect. A secondary effect arises when the later born children grow up and have their delay too. There can also be a learning effect. World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100. This would cut projected emissions by some 20%. The effect seems important enough to have more research on reasons, causes and consequences of such delay. Strong delay will cause swings in the dependency ratio, which would require economic flexibility, like a rising retirement age from 65 to 70 years. Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948 stipulates the right to education. This right need not be discussed anew. It may be that education does not adequately discuss family planning though.

Suggested Citation

  • Colignatus, Thomas, 2019. "A numerical exercise on climate change and family planning: World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100 if women of age 15-29 wait and have their first child at age 30+," MPRA Paper 97447, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Dec 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97447
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97447/1/MPRA_paper_97447.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Colignatus, 2004. "Modifying behaviour on STI including HIV and oncogenic HPV: a draft protocol for a registry open to the registered subject, generating the concept of a 'STI passport'," HEW 0412001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colignatus, Thomas, 2020. "Forum Theory & A National Assembly of Science and Learning," MPRA Paper 98568, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2020.

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      More about this item

      Keywords

      family planning; fertility; birth delay; climate change; population; carbon tax; fertility tax; political economy;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
      • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
      • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
      • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
      • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
      • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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