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Vergi gelirlerinin tahminlenmesine yönelik ekonometrik model
[Econometric model for forecasting tax revenues]

Author

Listed:
  • Yılmaz, Engin

Abstract

Vergi gelirleri, Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli gelir kalemlerinden birisidir. Vergi gelirleri güçlü bir ekonominin en önemli göstergesidir. Ülkemizde yıllar itibariyle vergi gelirleri sürekli bir artış göstermiş ve 2018 yılı itibariyle vergi gelirlerinin tutarı milli gelirin %24’ü seviyesine ulaşmıştır. Kalkınma Bakanlığınca, Orta Vadeli Program/Orta Vadeli Mali Plan içerisinde gerçekleştirilen vergi gelirleri tahminleri büyük sapmalar göstermektedir. Bu çalışma içerisinde öncelikle vergi gelirleri serisinin tarihsel süreç içerisindeki gelişimi ve yapısı incelenip, Kalkınma Bakanlığınca yapılan tahminlerin sonuçları detaylı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu makale ARIMA metodunun sonuçlarının, devlet kurumlarının sonuçlarından daha iyi olduğunu göstermiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Yılmaz, Engin, 2018. "Vergi gelirlerinin tahminlenmesine yönelik ekonometrik model [Econometric model for forecasting tax revenues]," MPRA Paper 91192, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91192
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chimilila, Cyril, 2017. "Forecasting Tax Revenue and its Volatility in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(1), January.
    2. Adi Brender & Guy Navon, 2010. "Predicting Government Tax Revenues and Analyzing Forecast Uncertainty," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 7(2), pages 81-111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vergi Gelirleri; Vergi Tahminleri; Vergi Gelirlerinin Tahminlenmesi.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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