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Main Determinants of Romanian Emigration. A Regional Perspective

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  • Goschin, Zizi

Abstract

Statistical data reveal considerably higher emigration rates in certain regions of Romania, usually the less developed ones, marked by high unemployment and poverty rates. This suggests that a deeper understanding of Romanian out-migration patterns and the underlying factors of influence can be reached by investigating the phenomenon from a regional perspective. Consequently the paper explores the major causes of Romanian emigration using county level data from the last Census. We are testing some potential push factors, such as low development, small income and high unemployment. The average level of education by county is also considered by using two relevant variables: share of secondary education graduates, as well as university graduates, in stable population aged 10 years and over. We test for spatial dependence in the number of emigrants by county and estimate both classic OLS regression models and spatial models, namely spatial lag and spatial error models. In accordance with previous findings in the literature, our results point to the development level (captured by GDP per capita) as a negative factor of influence for emigration. This means that poorer counties provide more emigrants compared to the richer ones. Surprisingly, the characteristics of the regional labour market, reflected by average wage and unemployment rate, influence the emigration flows in opposite direction than expected. We explained this outcome in the context of highly significant impact of human capital, as we found stronger propensity towards emigration for the persons having higher skills and qualifications, which are seldom affected by unemployment and low income. To sum up, our empirical analysis points to well-educated people from poorer counties as the most likely emigrants. This result should raise awareness on the waste of human capital (“brain drain”) with long-lasting negative consequences for the Romanian society and economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Goschin, Zizi, 2016. "Main Determinants of Romanian Emigration. A Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 88829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Zizi Goschin, 2013. "The Remittances As A Potential Economic Growth Resource For Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(15), pages 1-29.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ionel MUNTELE & Raluca-Ioana HOREA-ȘERBAN, 2021. "From Internal to International Migration in Romania – Continuity and Spatial Differentiation," Eastern European Journal for Regional Studies (EEJRS), Center for Studies in European Integration (CSEI), Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova (ASEM), vol. 7(2), pages 5-26, December.
    2. Adriana Ana Maria Davidescu & Vasile Alecsandru Strat & Raluca Mariana Grosu & Ion-Daniel Zgura, 2017. "Determinants of Romanians' Migration within the European Union: Static and Dynamic Panel Gravity Approaches," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 621-621, August.
    3. Mirela CRISTEA & Daniela Emanuela DĂNĂCICĂ & Graţiela Georgiana NOJA, 2021. "Emigration Decision and the Migration Profile of the Unemployed: A Case Study on Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 94-111, June.
    4. Iordache Mihaela & Matei Mihaela, 2020. "Explaining Recent Romanian Migration: A Modified Gravity Model with Panel Data," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 46-64, August.
    5. Aurelian-Petruș Plopeanu & Daniel Homocianu & Nelu Florea & Ovidiu-Aurel Ghiuță & Dinu Airinei, 2019. "Comparative Patterns of Migration Intentions: Evidence from Eastern European Students in Economics from Romania and Republic of Moldova," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-21, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emigration; push factors; spatial models; county; Romania.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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