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Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006)

Author

Listed:
  • Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak
  • Hussain, Anwar Hussain

Abstract

The present study has been conducted in the year 2008 to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan during 1970-2006 using econometric techniques. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2006 on total exports, primary commodities exports, semi-manufactures and exports of manufactured goods has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan (Statistical Supplement, 2006-07). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used for checking the stationarity of the data. Furthermore, the Johenson Co-integration test (likelihood ratio statistic) has been used to detect the long-term relationship among the series. The method of ordinary least square has been used to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan. The results indicate that 1% increase in the exports of primary commodities brings 0.97% increase in total exports in Pakistan. Similarly, 1% increase in the exports of semi-manufactures leads to increase total exports by 0.99%. On similar pattern, 1% increase in the exports of manufactured goods leads to increase total exports by 1%. The coefficients of all the explanatory variables are statistically significant at both 5% and 1% level of significance. It is recommended to increase the exports of primary goods, semi-manufactures and manufactured goods so as make balance of trade favorable.

Suggested Citation

  • Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Hussain, Anwar Hussain, 2010. "Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006)," MPRA Paper 41988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41988
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Funke & Sean Holly, 1992. "The determinants of West German exports of manufactures: An integrated demand and supply approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 498-512, September.
    2. Sharma, K., 2000. "Export Growth in India: Has FDI Played a Role?," Papers 816, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    3. James Riedel & Chris Hall & Roger Grawe, 1984. "Determinants of indian export performance in the 1970s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 120(1), pages 40-63, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinants; exports; econometric; analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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