Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Economy in the Aftermath of the Earthquake

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ahmed, Shaghil
  • Hyder, Kalim
  • Areeb, Tabinda

Abstract

In this study, we use simulations from the Social Policy and Development Centre’s large-scale empirical model of Pakistan’s economy to quantify the economic losses resulting from the devastating earthquake that hit the country on October 8, 2005. We then use the model to trace the path that the economy can be expected to follow under the relief and reconstruction assumptions that seem most plausible at present. The main results are as follows: First, the earthquake could initially shave off 1½ percentage points from economic growth. In the absence of reconstruction, this initial hit would lead to permanent losses of levels of the capital stock, consumption, and income that are substantial. Second, the assumed rebuilding effort of $5.8 billion over a five-year period will bring the economy back only half-way to the path that would have prevailed in the absence of the earthquake. Third, this rebuilding effort will be inflationary in the short run, and could add 2 percentage points to the rate of increase of consumer prices in 2005-06 and 1 percentage point the following year.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30530/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30530.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30530

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Macroeconometric Modeling; Earth Quake; losses;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30530. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.