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The Trough Deepens

Author

Listed:
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Molina, Angel L., Jr.

Abstract

As the third quarter of 2009 comes to a close, the Mexican economy remains severely battered. The latest INEGI data indicate that the second quarter of 2009 brought with it an annual GDP decrease, in real terms, of nearly 10.3 percent. The current consensus outlook calls for the light at the end of the tunnel to appear in 2010. In spite of this austere outlook, the financial system in Mexico has fared better than it did in prior recessions and the economy seems poised for growth once exports recover. The consensus outlook for real gross domestic product (GDP) calls for a noticeably sharp decline in 2009 of 7.1 percent. Relative to the consensus from last quarter, that represents a sharp downward revision. Individual panelist forecasts range from a drop of 6.5 percent to a steeper decline of 8.2 percent. An important source of the more pessimistic outlook is private consumption. Compared with the previous quarter, Mexican consumers are expected to reduce purchases by 6.9 percent, more than double the rate of decline expected three months ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Molina, Angel L., Jr., 2009. "The Trough Deepens," MPRA Paper 30290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Sep 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30290
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexico; Macroeconomic Forecast; Consensus Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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