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Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2006 – 2008

Author

Listed:
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Kelley, Brian W.

Abstract

A variety of measures such as real output, retail receipts, and personal incomes show how the borderplex economy continues to expand (Table 1). Although employment growth is expected to subside, local labor market strength will be sufficiently robust to hold the El Paso unemployment rate well below its 32-year average of greater than 10 percent. Similarly, even though residential construction activity is expected to moderate slightly, overall housing activity is projected to remain high by historical standards. Expansion at Fort Bliss is the source for much of the heightened business activity as the arrivals of new troops translate into greater demand for housing, retail, and other services. By 2008, more than 13 thousand businesses are expected to be registered in El Paso. Per capita personal income is projected to exceed $26,200 that year. Additional detail obtained from simulations of the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model is presented below for El Paso, Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua City, and Las Cruces.

Suggested Citation

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2006. "Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2006 – 2008," MPRA Paper 30131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Oct 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30131
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. - Mexico Border Region; Econometric Forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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