La contribución del aumento del precio de las materias primas para las cuentas fiscales y el sector externo[The contribution of rising prices for commodities for the fiscal accounts and the external sector]

The prices of most commodities have been rising steadily for more than four years. This phenomenon, which has been taking place for a longer period than usual, has been favourable to several countries and economic sectors. Many economies based on the primary sector have been suddenly benefited and have increased their incomes considerably due to the export of these products. In case this international context which highly favours these countries started to reverse, the situation for them would be more difficult. The allocation and utilizations of these “extraordinary” incomes which result from the price of the basic products being extremely above its historical average are of vital importance to the evolution of the economy of each country. If said incomes were used orderly, anticipating that the international context can vary unexpectedly, the economic changes that the country will suffer when the situation reversed would be moderate. On the contrary, if these incomes were not used sensibly or bearing in mind that they will not last forever, when the situation reversed the consequences in the economy would be, at least, very complicated. Analyzing the fiscal accounts and the relationship between Argentina and the external sector -trading,credit, investment- it can be clearly seen that Argentina is following the last option. Public expenditure has evolved practically keeping pace with the price of commodities. The fact that both surpluses -commercial and fiscal- are highly dependent on the international price of the raw materials is alarming. Argentina’s increasing isolation from the international credit channels complicates this situation even more. The aim of this paper is to find the possibilities and threats that are faced by Argentina’s economy and point out some policies that should be implemented in the short run so that when the favourable international context reversed the consequences would not be so harmful.