Изменение Долгосрочных Прогнозов Развития Мирового Рынка Нефти Под Влиянием Нового Геополитического Фактора[Changing long-term forecasts for the development of the world oil market under the influence of a new geopolitical factor]

Predicting the global oil market for the long term, both oil companies and analytical centers use a systematic approach, striving to take into account all the main factors affecting the sensitive oil market. Each new factor affects the market in a new way, setting new vectors of development or restrictions. The climate factor that had been in effect until recently, which prompted the global energy market to restructure taking into account the gradual reduction of CO2 emissions, was replaced by a pandemic factor that limited the development of demand for oil. The latest recent factor was the factor of political decisions related to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which resulted in unprecedented sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. The forecasting entities represented by BP Oil Company, the International Energy Agency and OPEC have once again revised their forecasts for the development of the oil market. This article is devoted to the analysis of these forecasts, as well as comparison with previous forecasts made after the pandemic.