Analyse des impacts de la tension Russie-Ukraine à Madagascar[Impacts analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Madagascar]

The objective of this work is to analyze the impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the Malagasy economy. The main channel of transmission of the shock resulting from this tension is the variation in the price of oil, which will generate a deterioration in the balance of payments and a general increase in the price of raw materials in the energy sector and the transport of goods, which remains dependent on oil. In response, diversifying the sources of imports of essential goods and commodities such as energy and food seems attractive in the short term by strengthening intra-African trade. In the longer term, the energy transition is no longer an option but a necessity, as the country has the necessary potential in this area. Nevertheless, the path remains perilous in the sense that it requires significant capital.