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Population density index and its use for distribution of covid-19: A case study using Turkish data

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  • Baser, Onur

Abstract

Since March 2020, Turkey has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We estimated the population weighted density for each of the 81 cities in Turkey as well as the districts of its three densest cities. Istanbul, a city of 16 million, has a district with a population weighted density more than 5 times higher than New York City, the epicenter of Covid-19 pandemic. By using weighted least squares, we calculated the elasticity of the Covid-19 spread with respect to population weighted density as 0.67. In addition to the density, the proportion of people over 65, the per capita GDP, and the number of total health care workers in each city positively contributed to the case numbers, while education level and temperature had a negative effect. We suggested a policy measure on how to transfer health care workers from different areas to the areas with a possibility of wide spread and rank some of the cities according to their success at minimizing death given their population weighted density.

Suggested Citation

  • Baser, Onur, 2020. "Population density index and its use for distribution of covid-19: A case study using Turkish data," MPRA Paper 101904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101904
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101904/1/MPRA_paper_101904.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Craig, 1984. "Averaging population density," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(3), pages 405-412, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mateo Carlos Galindo-Pérez & Manuel Suárez & Ana Rosa Rosales-Tapia & José Sifuentes-Osornio & Ofelia Angulo-Guerrero & Héctor Benítez-Pérez & Guillermo de Anda-Jauregui & Juan Luis Díaz-de-León-Santi, 2022. "Territorial Strategy of Medical Units for Addressing the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City: Analysis of Mobility, Accessibility and Marginalization," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Jessica Yu & Paul Gustafson & Martino Tran & Michael Brauer, 2022. "Assessing Trade-Offs and Optimal Ranges of Density for Life Expectancy and 12 Causes of Mortality in Metro Vancouver, Canada, 1990–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-17, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Density index; covid-19; turkish data; distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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