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O problema do crescente endividamento de Portugal à luz da New Macroeconomics

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Author Info

  • Pedro Cosme da Costa Vieira

    ()
    (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

Neste texto apresento o modelo base da abordagem teórica denominada por New Macroeconomics aplicando-o à tendência secular, aos ciclos económicos e ao crescente endividamento de Portugal. É demonstrado que i) o endividamento crescente prejudica as exportações e favorece as importações e que, ii) não podendo o aumentar para sempre, a correcção do endividamento será feita pela subida da taxa de juro real e descida do salário nominal. A tentativa (sindical e governamental) de evitar a queda dos salários nominais terá como efeito um aumento ainda maior da taxa de juro real e uma taxa de desemprego muito elevada que levará à deslocação da mão-de-obra para o exterior (emigração). As conclusões do modelo parecem estar de acordo com a evidência empírica.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto in its series FEP Working Papers with number 363.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:363

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Related research

Keywords: Novos Clássicos; Nova Macroeconomia; Endividamento Público;

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