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Preferences for One-Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais-Type Behavior, Second Version

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  • David Dillenberger

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

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    Abstract

    Experimental evidence suggests that individuals are more risk averse when they perceive risk that is gradually resolved over time. We address these findings by studying a decision maker (DM) who has recursive, non-expected utility preferences over compound lotteries. DM has preferences for one-shot resolution of uncertainty (PORU) if he always prefers any compound lottery to be resolved in a single stage. We establish an equivalence between dynamic PORU and static preferences that are identified with commonly observed behavior in Allais-type experiments. The implications of this equivalence on preferences over information systems are examined. We define the gradual resolution premium and demonstrate its magnifying effect when combined with the usual risk premium. In an intertemporal context, PORU captures “loss aversion with narrow framing.”

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    File URL: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/09-033.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 09-033.

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    Length: 46 pages
    Date of creation: 10 Oct 2008
    Date of revision: 23 Sep 2009
    Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:09-033

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    Related research

    Keywords: Recursive preferences over compound lotteries; resolution of uncertainty; Allais paradox; narrow framing; negative certainty independence;

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