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Reformando el sistema de pensiones en Perú: costo fiscal, nivel de pensiones, brecha de género y desigualdad

Author

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  • Javier Olivera

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

El objetivo del presente trabajo es estudiar los posibles efectos de distintos escenarios de reforma del sistema de pensiones peruano en la deuda pública, valor de las pensiones, brecha de género y desigualdad de pensiones. Se analizan 3 modelos de reforma: i) capitalización individual puro, ii) sistema mixto basado en complementos de pensión (top up) y iii) sistema mixto con cuentas nocionales. Los resultados indican que el modelo de capitalización individual puro es mucho más costoso que el resto de alternativas y además no genera las pensiones más altas ni es el que reduce más las brechas de género ni la desigualdad de pensiones. Es tan caro ese escenario de reforma (57.1% del PBI) que es fiscalmente poco responsable. En cambio, el modelo mixto de cuentas nocionales es superior pues implica un considerablemente menor costo fiscal (9.5% del PBI) y mejores resultados en la brecha de género y el valor de las pensiones. En todos los casos se considera una pensión universal de monto pequeño, pensión mínima y pensiones garantizadas según umbrales de números de aportes. JEL Classification-JE: H55, H63, I30, G23

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Olivera, 2020. "Reformando el sistema de pensiones en Perú: costo fiscal, nivel de pensiones, brecha de género y desigualdad," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-496, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00496
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0496
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensions; Public debt; Inequality; Gender gap; Peru;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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