The Italian Electricity Prices in Year 2025: an Agent-Based Simulation
AbstractIn this paper, we build a realistic large-scale agent-based model of the Italian dayahead-electricity market based on a genetic algorithm and validated over several weeks of 2010, on the basis of exact historical data about supply, demand and network characteristics. A statistical analysis confirms that the simulator well replicates the observed prices. A future scenario for the year 2025 is then simulated, which takes into account market’s evolution and energy vectors’ price dynamics. The future electricity prices are contrasted with the ones that might arise considering also the possible (yet unlikely) construction of new nuclear power (NP) plants. It is shown that future prices will be higher than the actual ones. NP production can reduce the prices and their volatility, but the size of the impact depends on the pattern of the expected demand load, and can be negligible.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0130.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Electricity market; PUN; Agent-based computational economics; Nuclear power.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-04-02 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2011-04-02 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2011-04-02 (Microeconomic European Issues)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Maria Manenti).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.