IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/znsqg.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Unpredictability of Individual-Level Longevity

Author

Listed:
  • Breen, Casey
  • Seltzer, Nathan

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

How accurately can age of death be predicted using basic sociodemographic characteristics? We test this question using a large-scale administrative dataset combining the complete count 1940 Census with Social Security death records. We fit eight machine learning algorithms using 35 sociodemographic predictors to generate individual-level predictions of age of death for birth cohorts born at the beginning of the 20th century. We find that none of these algorithms are able to explain more than 1.5% of the variation in age of death. Our results suggest mortality is inherently unpredictable and underscore the challenges of using algorithms to predict major life outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Breen, Casey & Seltzer, Nathan, 2023. "The Unpredictability of Individual-Level Longevity," SocArXiv znsqg, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:znsqg
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/znsqg
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/643051bb8f4a1c1381fc8d6d/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/znsqg?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hannes Schwandt & Janet Currie & Marlies Bär & James Banks & Paola Bertoli & Aline Bütikofer & Sarah Cattan & Beatrice Zong-Ying Chao & Claudia Costa & Libertad González & Veronica Grembi & Kristiina , 2021. "Inequality in mortality between Black and White Americans by age, place, and cause and in comparison to Europe, 1990 to 2018," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(40), pages 2104684118-, October.
    2. Alyson A. van Raalte, 2021. "What have we learned about mortality patterns over the past 25 years?," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(S1), pages 105-132, December.
    3. Irma Elo & Cassio Turra & Bert Kestenbaum & B. Ferguson, 2004. "Mortality among elderly hispanics in the United States: Past evidence and new results," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(1), pages 109-128, February.
    4. Adriana Lleras-Muney & Joseph Price & Dahai Yue, 2020. "The Association Between Educational Attainment and Longevity using Individual Level Data from the 1940 Census," NBER Working Papers 27514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alexander, Monica, 2018. "Deaths without denominators: using a matched dataset to study mortality patterns in the United States," SocArXiv q79ye, Center for Open Science.
    6. Ridhi Kashyap, 2021. "Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(S1), pages 47-75, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breen, Casey & Goldstein, Joshua R., 2022. "Berkeley Unified Numident Mortality Database: Public Administrative Records for Individual-Level Mortality Research," SocArXiv pc294, Center for Open Science.
    2. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen & Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos Espiñeira & Camila Perera & Ingelise Andersen, 2023. "Trends in mortality patterns in two countries with different welfare models: comparisons between Cuba and Denmark 1955–2020," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-28, June.
    3. Daniel Powers, 2013. "Paradox Revisited: A Further Investigation of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Infant Mortality by Maternal Age," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 495-520, April.
    4. Mark Hayward & Robert Hummer & Chi-Tsun Chiu & César González-González & Rebeca Wong, 2014. "Does the Hispanic Paradox in U.S. Adult Mortality Extend to Disability?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(1), pages 81-96, February.
    5. Joseph T. Lariscy & Claudia Nau & Glenn Firebaugh & Robert A. Hummer, 2016. "Hispanic-White Differences in Lifespan Variability in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 215-239, February.
    6. Andrew Fenelon, 2017. "Rethinking the Hispanic Paradox: The Mortality Experience of Mexican Immigrants in Traditional Gateways and New Destinations," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 567-599, September.
    7. Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez & Alberto Palloni & Fernando Riosmena & Rebeca Wong, 2016. "SES Gradients Among Mexicans in the United States and in Mexico: A New Twist to the Hispanic Paradox?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1555-1581, October.
    8. Mara Sheftel & Frank W. Heiland, 2018. "Disability crossover: Is there a Hispanic immigrant health advantage that reverses from working to old age?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(7), pages 209-250.
    9. Casey Breen & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2022. "Berkeley Unified Numident Mortality Database: Public administrative records for individual-level mortality research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(5), pages 111-142.
    10. Douglas R. Leasure & Ridhi Kashyap & Francesco Rampazzo & Claire A. Dooley & Benjamin Elbers & Maksym Bondarenko & Mark Verhagen & Arun Frey & Jiani Yan & Evelina T. Akimova & Masoomali Fatehkia & Rob, 2023. "Nowcasting Daily Population Displacement in Ukraine through Social Media Advertising Data," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(2), pages 231-254, June.
    11. Diane Lauderdale, 2006. "Birth outcomes for Arabic-named women in California before and after September 11," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(1), pages 185-201, February.
    12. Fernando Riosmena & Rebeca Wong & Alberto Palloni, 2013. "Migration Selection, Protection, and Acculturation in Health: A Binational Perspective on Older Adults," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 1039-1064, June.
    13. Adriana Lleras‐Muney, 2022. "Education and income gradients in longevity: The role of policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 5-37, February.
    14. Stephane Helleringer & Chong You & Laurence Fleury & Laetitia Douillot & Insa Diouf & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Valerie Delaunay & Rene Vidal, 2019. "Improving age measurement in low- and middle-income countries through computer vision: A test in Senegal," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(9), pages 219-260.
    15. Wanchuan Lin, 2009. "Why has the health inequality among infants in the US declined? Accounting for the shrinking gap," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 823-841, July.
    16. Hamid Noghanibehambari & Farzaneh Noghani, 2023. "Long‐run intergenerational health benefits of women empowerment: Evidence from suffrage movements in the US," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2583-2631, November.
    17. Jason Fletcher & Hamid Noghanibehambari, 2023. "Toxified to the Bone: Early-Life and Childhood Exposure to Lead and Men’s Old-Age Mortality," NBER Working Papers 31957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Robert Hummer & Daniel Powers & Starling Pullum & Ginger Gossman & W. Frisbie, 2007. "Paradox found (again): Infant mortality among the Mexican-origin population in the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(3), pages 441-457, August.
    19. Fernando Riosmena & Randall Kuhn & Warren C. Jochem, 2017. "Explaining the Immigrant Health Advantage: Self-selection and Protection in Health-Related Factors Among Five Major National-Origin Immigrant Groups in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 175-200, February.
    20. Jennifer Hook & Frank Bean & James Bachmeier & Catherine Tucker, 2014. "Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 699-726, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:znsqg. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.