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The accuracy of FiveThirtyEight's 2018 midterm election predictions: an exploratory analysis

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  • Smith, Jinkinson

Abstract

This study compares the predictions made by FiveThirtyEight's "Deluxe" forecasts in the 2018 United States midterm elections to the elections' actual results. It does so using two measures of polling error: difference between actual and predicted percent of the vote received by the Democratic candidate, and difference between actual and predicted margin of victory, in each race. Results indicate that the predictions were generally accurate, and that to the extent that they were not, this inaccuracy showed moderate evidence of being systematically skewed towards the Democratic candidate, overestimating their actual performance.

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  • Smith, Jinkinson, 2018. "The accuracy of FiveThirtyEight's 2018 midterm election predictions: an exploratory analysis," SocArXiv pf53c, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:pf53c
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pf53c
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