Estimates of excess passenger traffic in Puerto Rico following Hurricane María

BACKGROUND This descriptive finding examines excess net passenger traffic in Puerto Rico following Hurricane María for September and October 2017. OBJECTIVE To determine the degree of excess net passenger traffic in Puerto Rico for September and October 2017 based on historical patterns of variability in net passenger traffic. METHODS Data come from the Monthly Operational Report published by the Puerto Rico Port Authority for the 2010-2018 fiscal years. Data was aggregated by month and year, and means (expected net passenger traffic) and 95% confidence intervals (C.I. or patterns of variability) were produced for each month. Data from 2017-2018 Monthly Operational Report was used to compare the expected passenger flow with the totals for September and October 2017. RESULTS The expected net passenger flow for September and October was -15.39 thousands (95% C.I. = -18.61 thousands and -12.16 thousands) and -0.88 thousands (95% C.I. = -5.01 thousands and 3.26 thousands), respectively. Net passenger flow for September and October 2017 was -34.6 and -88.3 thousand passengers. Excess net passengers for these two months was -19.2 and -87.42 thousand people in comparison to the expected net passenger flow, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Based on this comparison the net passenger flow for September and October 2017 and expected net passenger flow from Puerto Rico was -106.62 thousand passengers. CONTRIBUTION The derivation of excess net passenger flow could inform the government and policy makers concerning the migration dynamics following Hurricane María, as ports and airports are the only exit point in Puerto Rico.