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Determinants of Urbanization in Pakistan: Empirical evidence from ARDL model

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  • Sakib, S M Nazmuz

Abstract

This paper is intended to investigate the determinants of urbanization in Pakistan using the annual time series data from 1973 to 2018. Our aim with this paper is to analyze the short run and long run relationship between urbanization and its key determinants. We employed the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model for estimation purpose. We applied a cointegration approach i.e., the ARDL bounds test to confirm the relationship between urbanization (dependent variable) and other independent variables including GDP per capita growth, unemployment, literacy rate and energy demand. Diagnostic tests ensured the statistical soundness and validity of model. This study concluded that, in short run, the GDP per capita growth, literacy rate and energy demand positively influence the urbanization, while unemployment in urban areas is negatively associated with urbanization. Some policy implications are drawn, and some suggestions are given to deal with the substantial challenges of urbanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakib, S M Nazmuz, 2021. "Determinants of Urbanization in Pakistan: Empirical evidence from ARDL model," SocArXiv fudg9, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:fudg9
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fudg9
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