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The ordinary business of macroeconometric modeling: working on the Fed-MIT-Penn model (1964-1974)

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  • Cherrier, Beatrice
  • Backhouse, Roger

Abstract

The FMP model exemplifies the Keynesian models later criticized by Lucas, Sargent and others as conceptually flawed. For economists in the 1960s such models were “big science”, posing organizational as well as theoretical and empirical problems. It was part of an even larger industry in which the messiness for which such models were later criticized was endorsed as providing enabling modelers to be guided by data and as offering the flexibility needed to undertake policy analysis and to analyze the consequences of events. Practices that critics considered fatal weaknesses, such as intercept adjustments or fudging, were what clients were what clients paid for as the macroeconometric modeling industry went private.

Suggested Citation

  • Cherrier, Beatrice & Backhouse, Roger, 2018. "The ordinary business of macroeconometric modeling: working on the Fed-MIT-Penn model (1964-1974)," SocArXiv 39xkz, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:39xkz
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/39xkz
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    Cited by:

    1. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2021. "The Transformation Of Economic Analysis At The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System During The 1960s," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 323-349, September.
    2. M.J. Boumans, 2018. "Survey on Recent Work in the History of Econometrics: A Witness Report," Working Papers 18-10, Utrecht School of Economics.
    3. Acosta, Juan & Assistant, JHET, 2021. "Book Review of 'Banks and Finance in Modern Macroeconomics' by Claudio Sardoni and Bruna Ingrao," OSF Preprints kfxhy, Center for Open Science.
    4. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2018. "The transformation of economic analysis at the Federal Reserve during the 1960s," SocArXiv vdy2z, Center for Open Science.
    5. Rancan, Antonella, 2021. "The “Place Of The Phillips Curve” in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the First Federal Reserve Board’s Model (1966-1980s)," OSF Preprints t5jrx, Center for Open Science.
    6. Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2019. "Macroeconomics at the Crossroads: Stagflation and the Struggle between "Keynesian" and New Classical Macroeconometric Programs," OSF Preprints y364t, Center for Open Science.

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