The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange
AbstractIn this study we first estimate the volatility diffusion process of the underlying futures contracts that fit best daily observed American option prices. We then calculate for each day risk neutral densities for different points of time in the future by simulating these processes. To assess how good these denisities are in forcasting, we suggest non-parametric tests based on the inverse probability function. These tests account for the correlation of the inverse probabilities due to the overlapping window problem that always arises when the forecasting horizon is longer than the sample frequency. We find that our densities do considerably well for the thirty to sixty day horizon while doing less well for shorter horizons.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 60.
Date of creation: 25 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-04-15 (All new papers)
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- Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R. & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gabriela De Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2005. "Evaluating density forecasts from models of stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 151-166.
- Ben Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Paper 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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