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Estimation of Future Cases of Dementia from Those Born in 2015

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  • Fraser Lewis

Abstract

The estimates of future cases of dementia are a result of work commissioned by Alzheimer’s Research UK. The estimates were based on three components: estimates of how many people born in 2015 will survive to a given age; age and sex specific estimates of the incidence of dementia;an epidemiological model capable of measuring the flow of people between non-dementia and dementia, while mimicking overall population dynamics consistent with survival data. Data was collected from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Cognitive Function & Ageing Study (CFAS I), and an epidemiological model was built.The model calculated that:27% of males born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia;37% of females born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia;32% of people born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser Lewis, 2015. "Estimation of Future Cases of Dementia from Those Born in 2015," Contract Research 001645, Office of Health Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ohe:conres:001645
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    Keywords

    Estimation of Future Cases of Dementia from Those Born in 2015;

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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