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Trends in Pension Eligibility Ages and Life Expectancy, 1950-2050

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  • Rafal Chomik
  • Edward R. Whitehouse

Abstract

The pensionable age is the most visible parameter of retirement-income systems. This paper surveys pensionable ages in the OECD for a period of a century: back to 1950 and forward to 2050. Average pensionable age in OECD countries dropped by nearly two years during the second half of the 20th century to 62.5 for men and 61.1 for women. Legislation already in place will increase it almost to 65 for both sexes by 2050. At the same time, life expectancy has increased in most countries at most times. Between 1960 and the turn of the century, life expectancy after pensionable age is grew from 13.4 to 17.3 years for men and 16.8 to 22.1 years for women on average in OECD countries. However, life expectancy after normal pension age is projected to reach 20.3 and 24.6 years (for men and women respectively) in 2050. This continued increase is projected despite many OECD countries having already legislated for phased increases in the pension age in the future. L'âge de la retraite est le paramètre le plus visible des systèmes de retraite. Ce document passe en revue les changements dans l'âge de la retraite des pays de l'OCDE sur une période d'environ un siècle: de 1950 jusqu'en 2050. La moyenne d'âge de la retraite dans les pays de l'OCDE a chuté de près de deux ans durant la seconde moitié du 20ème siècle s'établissant à 62,5 pour les hommes et 61,1 pour les femmes. En considérant la législation déjà en place, dans les pays de l'OCDE, pour les années à venir, il augmentera de nouveau, s'établissant à environ 65 pour les deux sexes d'ici à 2050. Dans le même temps, l'espérance de vie a augmenté dans la plupart des pays la plupart du temps. Entre 1960 et 2000, l'espérance de vie, après avoir atteint l'âge de départ à la retraite est passé de 13,4 à 17,3 ans pour les hommes et de 16,8 à 22,1 ans pour les femmes en moyenne dans les pays de l'OCDE. Cependant cette augmentation ne semble pas avoir pris fin: L'espérance de vie après l'âge normal de la retraite devrait atteindre 20,3 et 24,6 ans (pour les hommes et les femmes respectivement) en 2050. Cette augmentation continue est prévue dans de nombreux pays de l'OCDE nonobstant le fait que la plupart des ceux-ci aient déjà légiféré pour tenir compte de l'augmentation progressive de l'âge de retraite à l'avenir.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5km68fzhs2q4-en
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers with number 105.

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Date of creation: 04 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:105-en

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